Scenario Packs
Three packs, one credibility rulebook.
A scenario pack is the minimal reviewable unit: mechanisms, endpoints, train/validation tasks, public data and COU versioned together. v1 prioritizes murine public data. Default paper spine: Influenza (mouse) + MC38 — replaceable.
§ 0
Three mechanism spines under one rulebook
Each scenario must provide: mechanism chain, endpoints, measurement models, train/validation isolation, ≥1 L1; L2 encouraged (pharmacologic blockade/exhaustion preferred).
Until public-data runs complete, this site shows no fit errors or pass/fail conclusions.
§ 1
Scenario A · Respiratory virus
Chain: IFN → NK → CTL → antibody. Default spine: Influenza-like (replaceable).
Default spine
Influenza-like murine respiratory virus
Replaceable
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Endpoints | Tclear · Vpeak/tpeak · inflammation AUC |
| L1 | Inoculum ×10; antiviral on day 2 |
| L2 | Reduced NK recruitment; IFN pathway block |
| Phase | Phase 0 minimal loop first |
measurement_model snippet (structure example)
name: virus_load_log10
y_obs: log10(virus_count / volume + eps)
aligns_to: public_data.column.virus_titer
lod: "<assay LOD placeholder>"
noise: "homoscedastic_or_declared"§ 2
Scenario B · Bacterial infection
Focus: neutrophils · complement · macrophages. Murine organ CFU path.
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Endpoints | Clearance · tissue-damage AUC · sepsis-tendency index |
| L1 | Antibiotic timing / dose |
| L2 | Neutrophil recruitment or killing defects |
| Phase | Phase 1 |
§ 3
Scenario C · Tumor immunology
Tumor growth · immunosuppression · PD-1. Default spine: MC38-like (replaceable).
Default spine
MC38-like tumor immunology
Replaceable
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Endpoints | Tumor volume · TGI@dayX · exhaustion index |
| L1 | PD-1 timing / dose |
| L2 | Treg/MDSC boost, antigenicity drop |
| Phase | Phase 1 |
§ 4
Public data & murine-first
Murine-first: richer controllable time series; lower heterogeneity; easier L2; auditable observables (PFU, CFU, caliper volume).
Digitized paper figures must retain scripts, source hashes and digitization_error_band.
§ 5
Scenario pack layout (example)
Directory sketch only; placeholders are not results.
scenario_pack/
scenario_pack/
cou.yaml
mechanisms.md
endpoints.yaml
measurement_models/
tasks/
train.yaml
validate_L1.yaml
validate_L2.yaml
public_data/
presets/